The AUDUSD currency pair has once again entered a troubling phase of decline, marking its fourth consecutive week in negative territory. Recently, it slipped to a two-month low of 0.6612 but managed to stay above the vital 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This average has historically served as a significant support level, and the current scenario presents a growing speculation about whether this prolonged selling trend is reaching a critical juncture. In September, this very support zone had provided a foundation for price recovery; thus, its persistence is crucial for any potential bullish reversal.
Despite the ongoing speculation of a potential rebound, the atmosphere remains cautious. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators illustrate a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment. These technical indicators suggest that the appetite for selling continues to overshadow any immediate bullish prospects. Traders are particularly attentive to the levels below 0.6610, as a dip here could lead the AUDUSD to encounter the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 0.6573. A breach of this point could trigger further downturns, with the next significant support located along an ascending trendline at 0.6530, accompanied by a protective zone between 0.6470 and 0.6500.
Conversely, should AUDUSD manage to bounce back above the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement mark of 0.6643, there could be a potential for upward momentum towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level situated at 0.6714. Surpassing the 0.6750 resistance—where the 50-day SMA resides—would be particularly pivotal. Such a breakthrough may pave the way for a more robust recovery, potentially targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci milestone at 0.6800. This scenario underscores the importance of observing the price action around these key Fibonacci levels, as they may serve as critical indicators for traders seeking opportunities in either direction.
While AUDUSD remains under the shadow of downward pressures, the current price action near established support zones offers the slightest glimmer of hope for a recovery. Traders and analysts alike should remain vigilant, as the interplay between support and resistance levels will likely dictate the next movements of this currency pair. Investors are encouraged to stay aware of the technical indicators and market sentiments that could influence the AUDUSD in the upcoming sessions. This volatile landscape could provide both risk and opportunity, making it essential for those trading this pair to adopt a cautious yet flexible approach.